Saturday, September 17, 2016

Week 3: Another Mega Weekend

The college football season is trying to outdo themselves once again with a tremendous slate of contests that are worth all your attention, let's take a look.

9:00 am Slot
#2 Florida State Seminoles (-1.0) @ #10 Louisville Cardinals ABC

Is there any better thing to wake up to than a top 10 matchup? I'm just surprised that the television powers that be allowed such a mammoth game to occupy time slot like the 9 am PST/noon EST where it's mostly just filler games. Not so today, this one will undoubtedly have national playoff implications with the loser likely facing elimination. In this game, you have three of the most exciting players in all of college football playing on the same field, so expect some fireworks. For Louisville, everything revolves around their quarterback, Lamar Jackson. Jackson has piled up 13 total touchdowns against not the greatest of opposition (Syracuse, Charlotte), but it's still impressive nonetheless. Check out his highlights from the game against Syracuse, it's a thing of beauty, especially that hurdling of a defender. Let's see how Jackson performs against a Seminole defense that will be without one of the best safeties in the country, Derwin James.

On the FSU side of things, the quarterback and the running back will get the headlines heading into this game. Florida State galvanized their preseason hype with their amazing comeback against Ole Miss in week one, that was the game that their freshman QB announced to the nation who he is. When you drop over 400 yards on a SEC defense like Ole Miss, everyone's going to remember the name of Deondre Francois. When teams try to stop their Heisman Trophy candidate, running back Dalvin Cook, Deondre Francois will punish them. If Francois brings in another performance of that quality, expect his Heisman candidacy to be elevated. I'm a big Dalvin Cook guy, so keep an eye on how he does against this Louisville defense that hasn't been tested this season on the ground.

My Pick: Florida State wins.

Backup Plan: #25 Miami Hurricanes (-3.5) @ Appalachian State Mountaineers ESPN

An old powerhouse meeting a classic upstart, underdog. This is a pretty solid backup plan if you ask me. Appalachian State started their season by nearly beating Tennessee in Knoxville, let's see how good this App State team is as they face Mark Richt's young squad led by Brad Kaaya at QB. If App State can pull off the upset, there's a good chance that they never lose another game this season and make a major bowl come January. The funny story behind this game is that Miami did not want to schedule this game, they only scheduled a home and away against App State because of a scheduling error and because of that, Miami will make a rare trip to Boone, North Carolina. Let's see how the local fans in Boone treat this huge game.

12:30 pm slot

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-10.5) @ #19 Ole Miss Rebels CBS

The SEC game of the week brings in a matchup that had Nick Saban circling his calendar six months ago. Here's what's on the line, Ole Miss is trying to beat Alabama for third straight season, Hugh Freeze has been the only SEC coach to get any recent success against the Tide and that's a credit to the great recruiting that Ole Miss has put together over the past couple years. Nick Saban has called his team out in his pressers and it's seemingly an attempt to get them focused ahead of this huge matchup in Oxford. The question is, which Ole Miss team will show up? They played so well in the first half against Florida State, that I immediately thought that the Rebels could give the Tide some trouble but then the Seminoles got their act together and punished Ole Miss with a tremendous second half comeback. For Ole Miss to have any chance in this game, they'll have to give their QB Chad Kelly time to throw and that will be a challenge against Alabama's extremely fast and powerful front seven.

For Alabama, much has been said about Alabama's lack of a true bell cow running back, however I'm of the belief that much of that talk is a bunch of noise since Bama's opponent last week, Western Kentucky stacked the box with 8 defenders and basically begged Alabama to go to the air, and Bama's true freshman QB, Jalen Hurts did just that, utilizing all of his great receivers. The big matchup for Alabama will be exploiting the Ole Miss secondary that will be without their best cover corner, Ken Webster. Expect Alabama to run the ball with the thunder and lighting of Harris and Scarbrough, but once Lane Kiffin gets a feel, he'll go the air and try to find his great receiving corps.

The Grove should be in rare form for this game, as it always is. Boy, do I love SEC football.

My Pick: Alabama wins, Ole Miss with the backdoor cover.

Backup Plan: #22 Oregon Ducks @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (-3.0) ABC

Do you want points? We got them, bitches. The over/under for this game is 75 and the gamblers expect these teams to obliterate that threshold on the turf in Lincoln. Neither team has been tested this year, so this is the game where we'll find out some valuable information about both teams. Granted both teams played the likes of Virginia, UC Davis, Wyoming, and Fresno State but the points allowed per game category is what stood out for me, Oregon is giving up 27.0 points per game, while the Huskers are yielding 13.5. That's not to say that Oregon is worse on defense than Nebraska, it's probably closer to a push, but this game has toss-up written all over it. There are three things I can guarantee about this game, one: there will be a lot of points, two: Oregon running back Royce Freeman will run for lots of yards, and Nebraska's crowd will renew one of my favorite venues in all of college football.

My Pick: Nebraska wins and covers.

Tweener Game: 4:00 pm

#17 Texas A&M Aggies @ Auburn Tigers (-3.5) ESPN

I thought I'd fit in an extra game just for the heck of it. Well, the real reason is that I'm betting on this game as part of my two team parlay for this weekend. Once I saw this weird line come out, I knew I had to hop on it, the Aggies aren't getting much respect from the experts in this one. After the Aggies pass rush led by Myles Garrett dismantled UCLA's vaunted passing attack, A&M jumped into the top 25 and now seem like a sleeper team in the SEC East behind Alabama and Ole Miss. Auburn on the other hand nearly knocked off a top 5 team to start the year in Clemson, but Auburn looked quite anemic on offense which makes me feel quite good about betting on the road dog in this contest. My logic is this, if A&M's pass rush can tear apart a talented offense like UCLA's, they should be able to do the same against anemic, Auburn. I expect Auburn to keep this one close, we'll see if A&M QB Trevor "Katy Perry Wants To Call Me" Knight can turn this one into a rout.

Just keep an eye on this one while the big 4:30 games are going on, just for the fact that this is such an interesting game and an interesting line.

My Pick: A&M wins and does their part to make my bank account larger.

4:30 slot

#3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-1.0) @ #14 Oklahoma Sooners FOX

So many great games in this slot, but don't get cheeky on me, this is the game to watch and it's bound to be a historical game in the sense that these two traditional powerhouses are squaring off in a game that can slingshot the Sooners back into the college football playoff after a week one loss to the upstart, Houston Cougars. This is the other game of my two team parlay as I'm rolling with the Buckeyes since Urban Meyer's road record is too good not to pass up. The line I got was -3.0 in favor of Ohio State but I'm still quite confident that JT Barrett and the Buckeyes will outscore Baker Mayfield and the Sooners over that margin. This game has it all, great traditions, the recognizable fight songs like Boomer Sooner and the Best Damn Band in the Land's Buckeye Battle Cry, and even Jim Ross on the sideline supporting his Sooners

The question for this game will be if Oklahoma can find a rhythm that they weren't able to find against Houston, Oklahoma could be game for an upset. That will be tough against this stacked Ohio State team and I think the Buckeyes will just be too good for the Sooners.

This game is also great because it pits two of the coaching icons in college football of the 21st Century in Bob Stoops vs Urban Meyer.

My Pick: Ohio State wins by two touchdowns and completes my parlay.

Backup Plan: #12 Michigan State Spartans @ #18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7.0) NBC

This is a classic rivalry that plays for the Megaphone Trophy. And this rivalry has produced a lot of great moments in recent memory, including Michigan State planting their flag on Notre Dame's field after a wina fake field goal, walk-off touchdown that led to Michigan State's Mark Dantonio having a heart attack that made a Notre Dame radio personality say that God was responsible. This is what college football is all about.

We'll find out if Notre Dame is as overhyped as they often are. There's no reason for Brian Kelly's squad to lose this game in front of Touchdown Jesus. Either way, expect a game that will go down to the wire. It's just a shame this can only be the backup game.

My Pick: Spartans win.

Pac-12 After Dark Slot 7:30 pm: #11 Texas Longhorns (-7.0) @ California Golden Bears ESPN

Another shootout occupies the Pac-12 After Dark slot and once again, Cal is the team that is in the thick of the craziness. The over/under is 82 and the experts have indicated that the total is a more intriguing bet than the point spread. I thought about betting on the Longhorns but decided against it because I think my own personal bias is too down on Cal, and the spread is overrating Texas who beat a Notre Dame team that I'm not convinced is that good. Moral of the story: expect a huge score. 

Cal has nothing on defense except a bunch of traffic cones on defense, while Texas has some talent on defense that's still coming together. All the talent is on the offensive side of the ball. True freshman quarterback, Shane Buechele leads the Longhorns and has already seemingly mastered the learning curve in his first couple games. Whenever there's a short yardage situation, look out for their big backup QB Tyrone Swoopes who runs the package known as the 18 wheeler package that left Notre Dame a victim.

For Cal, Davis Webb is a graduate transfer quarterback from Texas Tech and he's already putting up big numbers in Sonny Dykes' Bear Raid offense. He's got a lot talent at wide receiver to work with in guys like Chad Hansen, Demetris Robinson, and Maurice Stovall, the latter of those two are true freshmen. Cal has a large stable of running backs but the problem with Sonny Dykes' offense is that often these talented running backs aren't utilized properly.

My Pick: Texas by 17.

Backup Plan: UCLA Bruins (-3.0) @ BYU Cougars ESPN2

Just in case the Longhorns open up a can of whoop-ass on Cal, there's a chance to watch Josh Rosen get things right. I'm already a little burned out on Josh Rosen's hype and his press clippings but there's no denying his talent, BYU is always a game that's a tough one so this should be competitive. BYU is looking to go two out of three against the Pac-12 South as they just split their games against Arizona and Utah. The Pac-12 South has looked bad early on in this season, so UCLA will try to salvage a little bit of pride.


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